Macro/daily

10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury Yield Spread

The 10-year constant-maturity yield minus the 3-month, computed by us from public-domain Treasury series (FRED's T10Y3M is marked copyrighted).

0.99%2026-10-08
Percentage points
-1.740.192.12Oct 15, 21Jan 13, 23Apr 11, 24Jul 10, 25Oct 8, 26

Why it matters

The New York Fed's preferred curve measure for recession probability models.

Release schedule: Daily, business days

Recent readings

PeriodValueChange
2026-10-080.99%-0.07
2026-10-071.06%+0.00
2026-10-061.06%-0.03
2026-10-051.09%+0.00
2026-10-021.09%+0.02
2026-10-011.07%-0.02
2026-09-301.09%+0.08
2026-09-291.01%+0.05
2026-09-280.96%+0.03
2026-09-250.93%-0.01
2026-09-240.94%+0.02
2026-09-230.92%—

Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; original data from the agency named in the description. This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.