The odds/Fed chair

Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20?

0%▼ 6 pts in 7 daysResolved: No

Chance over time

32548Feb 13Feb 15Feb 17Feb 19Feb 20

Implied probability in %, from polymarket's price. Dashed line: 50%.

How it resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?' market in the Event 'Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?' (https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-nominate-as-fed-chair) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes for any 1-hour period between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on February 20, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/judy-shelton-fed-chair-nomination-odds-5-by-feb-20 or through the “Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a relevant 1-hour window. This will display the 1-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.