Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?
Chance over time
Implied probability in %, from polymarket's price. Dashed line: 50%.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement within this market’s timeframe from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made before the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, will immediately resolve this market to “Yes”. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.