The odds/Fed chair

Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 18, 2026?

Fed funds (upper)
0%unchanged over 7 daysResolved: No

Chance over time

33261Feb 6Feb 9Feb 12Feb 15Feb 18

Implied probability in %, from polymarket's price. Dashed line: 50%.

How it resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Only a nomination message that nominates Kevin Warsh to be Chair of the Federal Reserve will qualify. A nomination solely to be a Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not qualify. A joint nomination both for membership on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and for Chair of the Federal Reserve will count.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.